Endemic Bubbles Generated by Delayed Behavioral Response in Epidemic Models
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11145/106Abstract
Several models have been proposed to capture the phenomenon that individualsmodify their behavior during an epidemic outbreak. This can be due to directly
experiencing the rising number of infections, media coverage, or intervention
policies. In this talk we show that a delayed activation of such a response can
lead to some interesting dynamics. In the case of SIS type process, if the
response is not too sharp, the system preserves global stability. However, for
sharp delayed response, we can observe stability switches as the basic reproduction
number is increasing. First, the stability is passed from the disease free equilibrium
to an endemic equilibrium via transcritical bifurcation as usual, but a further increase
of the reproduction number causes oscillations, which later disappear, forming a
structure in the bifurcation diagram what we call endemic bubble.
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Published
2013-04-23
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Conference Keynote Presentations
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