Modelling Disease Extinction: the Case of African Swine Fever Virus in Wildlife Areas
AbstractIn Mathematical Epidemiology disease free states are typically represented as equilibria of dynamical systems which model the respective epidemiological processes. In this setting, the asymptotic stability of a disease free equilibrium is interpreted as disease extinction. However, in the mathematical model extinction never occurs. Indeed, in a complete dynamical system, due to the uniqueness property, solutions may converge to an equilibrium but never reach it. While under constant conditions this is not really a problem, the stated property may result in significant modelling error in situations of varying epidemiological factors. More specifically, one may expect that under favorable conditions persisting for sufficiently long time the host population(s) will be disease free and will remain so even if the conditions change.В This seems to be the case with the African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV). ...
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