Assessing risks and benefits of indoor residual spraying for Malaria control in Limpopo: A mathematical modelling approach.

Abstract

Malaria is an infectious disease that is transmitted by female mosquitoes of theВ genus Anopheles [1]. Typical symptoms include fatigue, vomiting, headachesВ and fever with severe cases resulting in seizures, coma, yellow skin or deathВ [1]. Prevention of mosquito bites and mosquito control measures can reduceВ the risk of disease. Preventative measures mainly consist of the use of insectВ repellents, mosquito nets, draining standing water and insecticides. A vectorВ control intervention that resulted in a substantial reduction in the number ofВ malaria notication cases is the use of indoor residual spraying (IRS). IRS is used for malaria control in the low altitude parts of the Limpopo ProvinceВ in South Africa.

Recent studies have pointed out various health risks to thoseВ with prolonged exposure to IRS. These include cancer, male infertility, miscarriage, developmental delay, nervous system and liver damage. We aim to assess the long-term eects of IRS on malaria spread in Limpopo along the matter of health risks posed by exposure to IRS. We propose an SEIRВ model for the transmission dynamics of malaria in the Limpopo province. TheВ model consists of a system of ordinary dierential equations including the intervention IRS. We analyze this model to show its quantitative and qualitativeВ behaviour. The model is further tted to data to estimate some key parametersВ related to malaria transmission and health risks.