Modelling the Effects of Temperature Variation on Schistosomiasis Transmission Dynamics

Abstract

Schistosomiasis ranks second behind malaria in terms of its social, economic and public health impact in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. In this study, a non-linear mathematical model is formulated to study the effects of temperature variation on schistosomiasis transmission in the population. We hypothesize that changes in climatic variables as a result of global climate change will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, schistomiasis included. The ability of mankind to understand, react or adapt is dependent upon the magnitude and speed of the change. The outcome will also depend on our ability to recognize epidemics early, contain them effectively, provide appropriate treatment, and commit resources for prevention and research. That can only happen if the effect on a particular disease can be measured and analyzed. In this study we incorporate such changes to determine the best strategy to tackle schistosomiasis threat in light of climatic variables variation.