The probability of extinction in a dengue epidemic in the presence of Wolbachia

Abstract

The introduction of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes into the population has been proposed as an innovative new strategy against dengue transmission. In this paper, we analysed the effects of Wolbachia on dengue transmission dynamics using a deterministic and stochastic epidemic model. The reduction in the reproduction number and the probability of disease extinction are determined. We found that Wolbachia can reduce the reproduction number by up to 64%. В We also found that the probability of extinction is around 90% although the reproduction number is slightly above one. However, if the reproduction number is too high, which indicates higher transmission level, the probability ofВ  disease extinction is smaller. Consequently, an outbreak is likely to take off. The results suggest that the Wolbachia can be effective to reduce dengue transmission particularly in areas with low to moderate transmission level.В