Modeling of Community- and Hospital-acquired Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus Transmission in Hospital Settings
Keywords:community-associated MRSA, hospital-acquired MRSA, disease prevalence, sensitivity analysis, continuous-time Markov chain, forward Kolmogorov equations
AbstractIn this paper we developed both deterministicand stochastic models of community- and hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus transmission (MRSA) to quantify their interactions in a hospital settings. The disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. The disease persists in the community whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity. Although our stochastic model evolves on an unbounded state space, we show it is positive recurrent. The result obtained from the sensitivity analysis using the deterministic model indicates that the dominant parameters are the hand washing compliance rate, the health-care workers decolonization rate, environmental contamination rate, the admission rates into the hospital, isolation rate of patients with CA-MRSA and isolation rate of patients with HA-MRSA, the transmission probabilities of CA- and HA-MRSA В per contact with health-care workers and transmission probability of health-care workers В per contact with patients. Numerical simulations of the deterministic model obtained from using the dominate parameters as combination of control strategies such as low-, moderate and high-effectiveness control strategies show that disease prevalence among the hospital patients and the bacterial in the hospital environment can be controlled by moderate- and high-effectiveness control strategies. However, for health-care workers the disease prevalence can only be effectively controlled by the high-effectiveness control strategy.
The journal Biomath is an open access journal. All published articles are immeditely available online and the respective DOI link activated. All articles can be access for free and no reader registration of any sort is required. No fees are charged to authors for article submission or processing. Online publications are funded through volunteer work, donations and grants.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).