Mathematical model and simulations of MERS outbreak: Predictions and implications for control measures
The Middle East Respiratory SyndromeВ (MERS) has been identified in 2012 and since thenВ outbreaks have been reported in various localities in theВ Middle East and in other parts of the world. To helpВ predict the possible dynamics of MERS, as well as waysВ to contain it, this paper develops a mathematical modelВ for the disease. It has a compartmental structure similarВ to SARS models and is in the form of a coupled systemВ of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). TheВ model predictions are fitted to data from the outbreaksВ in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) during 2013-2016. The resultsВ reveal that MERS will eventually be contained in the city.В However, the containment time and the severity of the outbreaks depend crucially on the contact coefficients andВ the isolation rate constant. When randomness is addedВ to the model coefficients, the simulations show that theВ model is sensitive to the scaled contact rate among peopleВ and to the isolation rate. The model is analyzed usingВ stability theory for ODEs and indicates that when usingВ only isolation, the endemic steady state is locally stableВ and attracting. Numerical simulations with parametersВ estimated from the city of Riyadh illustrate the analyticalВ results and the model behavior, which may have importantВ implications for the disease containment in the city. Indeed,В the model highlights the importance of isolation of infectedВ individuals and may be used to assess other controlВ measures. The model is general and may be used to analyzeВ outbreaks in other parts of the Middle East and other areas.
The journal Biomath is an open access journal. All published articles are immeditely available online and the respective DOI link activated. All articles can be access for free and no reader registration of any sort is required. No fees are charged to authors for article submission or processing. Online publications are funded through volunteer work, donations and grants.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).